觸底反彈、美國&墨西哥市場解析
2024準備充分迎接挑戰
尹虹：大家好，我是尹博士，歡迎來到【洞見2024】。今天新年伊始，我與ICC瓷磚總經理漢貝托先生進行訪談。Dr Yin：Hello everyone. I'm Dr.Yin and welcome to Outlook for 2024. Today here at the beginning of the year interview with Mr. Humberto, General Manager of the ICC Interceramic in China.尹虹：時間過得真快，2023年已經過去了。我記得一年前你說過，2022年是最具挑戰性的一年。那么現在，你是如何看待2023年的呢？Dr Yin：How time flies, the year 2023 has passed. As I remember, one year before, you had told me The year 2022 was the most challenging. Now, in your opinion, how do you think about of the year 2023?漢貝托：人們對2023年抱有很高的期望。在我個人掌握或讀到的所有信息中，中國向世界的重新開放，被認為是這幾年最重要的世界經濟事件。很遺憾，這并沒有發生。最初幾個月，一切似乎要發生，但后來現實卻往下走。市場有所放緩，世界經濟衰退，中國的經濟形勢，比如房地產業和建筑業泡沫破裂，使事情變得非常具有挑戰性。從2022年持續到2023年，這可能讓它變得更加困難。Mr. Humberto：There were high expectations about 2023. In all the information that personally I had or read, China reopening to the world was supposed to be the most important economic event the world has seen in many years. Unfortunately, that didn't quite happen. the 1st couple of months, it seemed like it was going to happen, but then reality sinked in. And then the market eased and the world recession, And the economic events in China, like the real estate and construction burst and made things quite challenging. Then 2022 continued to 2023, and made it the quite possibly even a little bit more difficult.Dr Yin：Yeah, but the confidence of the Chinese in 2023 is not enough.漢貝托：還不夠。我們在美國看到過這種情況，中國人主要投資房地產市場，我認為消費者信心的恢復需要時間。此外，世界經濟衰退正在經歷一個低周期，這可能比我們想要的時間更長。我確信中國和世界經濟會反彈，但這需要更長一點的時間。Mr. Humberto：No, not enough. We have seen this event happen in the United States.The Chinese, the main thing that they invest on is in Real State. And I think you will take time for the consumer confidence to get back. Plus the world recession is going through a low cycle, so this may take longer than we all want. I am sure the economy in China and in the world will bounce back. But I guess it will take a little bit longer.尹虹：在佛山陶瓷領域，大家都認為你是一位具有國際視野的專業人士。所以我想問一些關于世界陶瓷產業的問題，還有美國和墨西哥。去年（2023年）五月 《陶瓷世界評論》雜志，發表了一篇來自MECS-Acimac的報告。據報道，全球瓷磚市場將從2022年到2026年的五年內增加30多億平方。但不久之后的同年九月，同樣是這家雜志，發表了關于世界瓷磚生產與消費的報告，即2022年，世界瓷磚生產下降了9.7%，瓷磚消費下降了10.1%。這樣的情況下，你認為全球瓷磚在2023年會增加嗎？Dr Yin：Yeah also in Foshan, in the ceramic the field, Everybody think you are a gentleman with the international view. So I like to ask something about the world ceramic industry and American also Mexico Yeah. Last May a magazine Ceramic World Review published a report from MECS and ACIMAC. It reports the world ceramic tile market will increase more than three billion square meters from the 2022 to 2026, that is five years. But also a little later, last September also this same magazines, published the report about the world production and consumption of the ceramic tile. This in 2022, the world tile production decrease 9.7%, the tile consumption decreased 10.1%. In this way, do you still think about the global ceramic tile will be increased in 2023?漢貝托：實際上，我認為下降的大部分來自中國，顯然還有世界經濟衰退和西班牙。我很遺憾它一直在下降。一些其他國家表現得不錯，比如印度、墨西哥。這可能是一個非常緩慢的開始，一個消極的開始。但我認為它會反彈，我認為我們已經觸底了。很有可能，從明年（2024年）開始，情況會逐漸好轉，但這并不意味著明年（2024年）我們會看到增長。但我也不認為會像我們在2022年和2023年看到的那樣糟糕。Mr. Humberto：So it's actually. A big decrease I think most of the decrease came from China. And obviously the world recession and Spain. I'm sorry is also going down and there are other countries that are doing well like India, Mexico to give you a couple of examples. So it's maybe it was a very slow start, actually a negative start. But I think it will bounce back, I think we touched the bottom. Quite possibly and starting next year. It will get gradually better. That doesn't mean that next year we will see an increase. But I don't think it will be as bad as what we saw in 2022 and 2023.Dr Yin：And 2023, a little increase?漢貝托：不一定，說實在的，它甚至可能比零稍微低一點。但不是負10%，也許是負3%。Mr. Humberto：Well not necessarily, actually It could be even a little bit below zero, but not minus ten percent maybe minus three percent.尹虹：我們也發現了另一個事情，美國是最大的瓷磚進口國，在2023年的前三個季度，美國的瓷磚進口下降了10.1%。我想問一下，主要原因是什么，是美國的瓷磚產量增加了，還是SPC新材料取代了瓷磚，又或是眾所周知，利率持續上漲影響了房地產銷售，是這三件事嗎？Dr Yin：Yeah, another things we also find that, you know the United States is the biggest tile import country. In this year, 2023 During the first 3 quarters the United States Tile Imports has decreased 10.1%. I'd like to ask you what's the main reason is because the tile production in the states increased, or is another problem is some the SPC new material replaced the tile, and also you nearly everybody know the continued interest rate hike has influenced the real estate sales yeah? Are these three things?漢貝托：我相信你說的這三件事是對的。但我不確定，每件事在下降中起了多少作用。慢慢地更多的工廠、品牌、公司和跨國企業試圖在這里落戶。你知道中國的Wonder ceramics在美國。最近，巴西的波托貝洛開了一家新工廠。這顯然導致了進口瓷磚的減少。毫無疑問，利率如此之高，這也導致了房屋銷售的減少。在美國流行的不是SPC而是LVT，而且如果我沒弄錯的話，目前在市場上使用得更多，這些新材料肯定正在超過瓷磚。Mr. Humberto：I believe you are right in the 3 things you said. I'm not quite sure what each one contributed in this decrease. Yes, there's slowly more factories, more brands more companies, international companies trying to settle. In the United States you know China wonder ceramics. And then portobello from Brazil opened a new factory recently. So that obviously contributed to a decrease in imports. No question about it the interest rates are so high that also contributed having less home sales. And also in the United States is not necessarily SPC is LVT Luxury Vinyl Tile. Also if I'm not mistaken, It’s more used at this moment in the market, these new materials are definitely gaining ground over the ceramic.尹虹：是的，我對美國瓷磚市場很感興趣，它會持續下降，還是幾年之后可能會恢復？Dr Yin：Yeah I'm really interested in the United States Ceramic Tile market will be decreased continually or maybe several years later can be recovered?漢貝托：我認為它會恢復的。自從反傾銷以來中國退出，市場發生了很大變化。一開始西班牙、墨西哥和土耳其是最大的贏家，但突然印度成為了頭號玩家。LVT是材料的其他選擇，當然也導致了瓷磚消費的減少。我認為這些變化會繼續發生，但最終，瓷磚因為它的生產方式和使用優勢，不會持續下降。事實上，在未來的三到五年，即使不增加一些，它也會保持穩定。Mr. Humberto：I think it will recover. The market has changed quite a bit since the exit of China with this anti-dumping. At the beginning Spain and Mexico were the big gainers and Turkey, but suddenly India became the top player. And then the LVT this other option materials, as well have definitely helped the ceramic consumption to decrease. But I think these changes will keep happening, and eventually I don't think ceramic because of the way it is produced and the benefits of using will keep decreasing. You know as a matter of fact it will be stable if not increasing a little in the maybe next three to five years.尹虹：我明白了，我想問一些關于墨西哥瓷磚行業的問題。我知道作為一家大型的瓷磚集團，ICC瓷磚在北美和中國很有名。墨西哥的瓷磚怎么樣，2023年國內瓷磚行業怎么樣？Dr Yin：I see yeah, also I like ask something about the Mexico ceramic tile industry yeah. I know you in your country always a big tile company also ICC in North America is famous in China, and also how about the Mexican Tile？How about the domestic tile industry in the 2023 year?漢貝托：給大家一個初步的數據，2022年是墨西哥瓷磚消費非常好的一年。我們公司的銷售額創了紀錄。但到了2023年，整個行業負增長，有些公司可能是負3%-5%，甚至負10%。我們公司的銷售額增長了一些，有3到4個百分點。但是墨西哥對美國的出口下降了一些，像3%左右，因為墨西哥自己有一個很大的市場，它主要生產紅坯產品，而不是在美國更受歡迎的瓷質磚。Mr. Humberto：In 2022 just to give you a preliminary observation was a very good year for Mexico Tile consumption. As a matter of fact we as a company had record sales. But reality settled in 2023, the whole industry has grown negatively maybe minus 5% minus 3%, even up to minus ten percent some companies. We as a company have increased a little three four percent. But Mexico exports to the United States decreased a little bit, like three percent, because Mexico has a big market and Mexico mainly produces red body type not porcelain that is what is more desired in the United States.尹虹：你在墨西哥瓷磚行業有沒有發現一些中國的投資？Dr Yin：Do you find some Chinese investment ceramic tile industry in Mexico?漢貝托：這是一個很好的問題，很多人都沒有注意到這一點。有史以來第一次，一家中國公司在墨西哥落戶，即將開始運營，工廠幾乎完工了，他們可能會在兩三個月內開工，最多四個月。根據我們的所見所聞，還有另外兩家公司正在申請在墨西哥開廠的許可。這很有趣，我們看看將發生什么。Mr. Humberto：That is a great question and many people are not aware of this. For the first time in history, a Chinese company settled in Mexico, and it’s about to open operations, the factory is almost finished maybe they will start in two three maximum four months according to what we have seen. And I heard as well that there are other two companies in the process of getting permits to establish themselves in Mexico. It's very interesting we will see what happens.尹虹：不僅有趣，還會給墨西哥瓷磚行業帶來了一些變化。Dr Yin：Not only interesting but also will bring some changes to the Mexican Tile Industry.漢貝托：中國陶瓷企業到處建立公司，非洲、巴基斯坦、沙特、南美。我從這些國家的朋友那里聽說，他們徹底改變了這個行業。Mr. Humberto：Everywhere the Chinese ceramic companies have established operations in Africa and Pakistan, in Saudi in South America. I heard from people from all of these countries, they completely changed the industry.尹虹：現在談談貴司ICC瓷磚的一些情況，我記得在去年（2022年）的談話中，你說ICC在2023年將會增加15%—20%，現在我想問，今年（2023年）的預期目標達到了嗎？Dr Yin：Now I talk about your company ICC in China, I remember last year in our conversation, you just say that the ICC in China will be increased 15%—20% in 2023. Now I'd like to ask you, you have got this the expected target this year (2023)?漢貝托：正如我之前提到的，2023年是艱難的一年，顯然我們的期望高了，2023年的銷售額有小幅增長。但遺憾的是，銷售額增長了，而市場的價格戰對利潤率有一些影響。Mr. Humberto：2023, As I mentioned before was a difficult year, and our obviously our expectation was much higher, you know the result of 2023 was a small growth in sales. But unfortunately, that gain in sales was damaged by the lower margins because of the price wars.漢貝托：積極的一面是我們的銷售額在增長，我們的專賣店數量在增加，新的經銷商數量也在增加，我們不斷地開設專賣店，取得進展。我們在2023年非常努力，也許結果未如理想，但還有一些無法通過財務數字體現的成果，將幫助我們打造一個更好的2024年。無論任何時候當中國經濟在世界衰退中好轉，我們都準備好了，我們為反彈和創造更好的一年做好準備。Mr. Humberto：But the positive thing is that we grew in sales. And we also grew in a number of stores, and number of new distributors signed and we keep opening stores and gaining ground which worked very hard in 2023, maybe the result was not what we wanted. But there are other non-financial numbers that are going to help us have a much better 2024. Or whenever the Chinese economy in the world recession gets better, I mean we we're ready. We're ready to bounce back and have a much better year.尹虹：你覺得2024年的中國瓷磚行業的情況會怎樣？Dr Yin：You think about China ceramic tile in 2024, what is the situation?漢貝托：總的來說，整個行業，我覺得已經觸底了，從現在開始，我們會越來越好。我的意思是說，我們不會反彈到好太多的程度。Mr. Humberto：In general, the industry in general, I think it feels like we already touched the bottom and from now we will keep getting better. I mean it's not like we're gonna bounce back to get much better.Dr Yin：You think it is still very hard?漢貝托：依然艱難，我不會感到驚訝，如果情況相同，或者將增長非常非常低的數字。 Mr. Humberto：Still hard still hard! I wouldn't be surprised if it's the same or if there's an increase will be very very low number.Dr Yin：Your company ICC in China, do you think about 2024？漢貝托：老實說，我認為將會更好，因為我們比前幾年在升級與更新方面投入了多得多的資金。我們的專賣店更多了，倉庫更大了，繼在中國十年后，我們搬到了更大的倉庫，參加重要的活動，舉辦年度事件，像廣州設計周等等。為了讓我們的公司與時俱進，實際上我們已經為2024年做好了充分準備。因為我們公司的類型，我們希望能比大多數公司做得更好。Mr. Humberto：I think honestly that would be better because we invested an unusual amount much higher than the previous years in upgrading and updating. Our stores and we have a bigger warehouse. After ten years, we moved to a bigger warehouse and attending important events regional events and annual events and Guangzhou Design Week and so on.To keep our company relevant, actually we're very ready for 2024. Because of the type of company that we are, and it is expected from us to have a better year than most.尹虹：幾乎每年，你都會在博洛尼亞展覽后分享國際瓷磚趨勢。通過這種方式，我想問，ICC的產品和創新，是如何保持與國際趨勢同步又滿足中國風格需求？Dr Yin：Nearly every year, you always share the International Tile Trends after the Bologna Exhibition. In this way, I like to ask you, your products, innovation, how ICC keep these International Trends in Line with the Chinese Style?漢貝托：我們做這份報告已經有20多年，在中國也將近10年，我們多次向整個行業發布這份報告。我們有很多信息和渠道，因為我們有國際背景，與意大利公司深入合作，比其他中國公司參加更多的國際展會，所以我們可以做出很好的報告。一方面，我們努力推出非常國際化的產品，大膽承擔風險，我們知道、希望或預測這些產品在中國會取得成功。另一方面，我們了解國際趨勢，并嘗試根據中國市場的需求來生產產品，這是非常重要的。我們的原則是，總是努力把全球最好的產品帶到中國，包括意大利、西班牙或世界其他地方以及在中國制造的產品。Mr. Humberto：We have been doing this for actually 20 plus years and it's almost ten years in China. Many times, we present this report to the industry in general. We have access to a lot of information and places, because of our international background with the Italian companies, and we attend many international fairs much more than any other Chinese company, so we can make great reports. Also yes we work on that as well, but we also take risks and launch products that are very international, and knowing or hoping or forecasting that they will work well in China. We do the other thing as well you know that we understand the international trends and try to like make them according to the Chinese market and is very important. And the bottom line is we say we always try to bring the best products the world has to offer to China either made in Italy, Spain or any other parts of the world or manufactured in China.Dr Yin：As I know you, the ICC north America set up in 1979, is right?Dr Yin：Also ICC in China is more than ten years before.尹虹：這是13年了。你可以回頭看這十幾年，ICC在中國的發展是否按計劃進行？你有足夠的信心在中國發展下一個計劃嗎？Dr Yin：This is thirteen years. Yeah, I guess you can look back, this is the more than ten years. ICC in China the development is on schedule？And also you have the enough the confident in another schedule ICC in China to develop?漢貝托：現在我們已經發展了很多專賣店。我想明年（2024）我們很可能成為在中國擁有最多門店的國際品牌。我們在中國的潛力是巨大的。但我覺得ICC不需要成為最大的，無論是兩百家還是三百家門店，每一家ICC門店都必須是市場上最好的專賣店，這是我們的目標，而不是只追求更多。Mr. Humberto：Now we have been opened plenty of stores. I think quite possibly next year we will be the International Brand that will have the most stores in China. The potential of that we have in China is big. But I don't expect ICC to be the biggest by any means if we have two or three hundred stores, I don't think it's necessary for us to have more. They have to be the best stores in the market now. That's our target.尹虹：我想每個人都像我一樣 相信ICC在中國會變得更好。Dr Yin：I think everybody like me believe ICC will be better in China.漢貝托：是的，我們會的。現在我聽到的信息比以往任何時候都多，我們也得到董事會的全力支持，以確保ICC保持強大，并有望在市場上更快地發展。Mr. Humberto：Yes, we will. and now more than ever I heard news that of course that we have full support of from the board members in making sure that ICC stay strong and grows hopefully faster in the market yeah.Dr Yin：OK yeah, Thank you for the Outlook for to 2024 the interview.Mr. Humberto：Thank you very much.
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